Check out these free NFL picks from sports handicapping service Vegas Experts:
This week’s sports betting matchup on Monday Night Football should be a good one as the New York Jets take on the New England Patriots in a battle of 9-2 teams vying for first place in the AFC East. Something will have to give here as New England is a perfect 5-0 straight up at home (2-2-1 ATS) and the Jets are a perfect 5-0 straight up on the road (4-1 ATS). Patriots QB Tom Brady has won an incredible 27 straight regular season home games. The Flyboys are a perfect 7-0 against the spread as a road underdog of seven points or less the last three seasons. Oddsmakers have opened New England as a three-point favorite on the betting line.
These teams already played once this season with the Jets winning 28-14 in Week 2 as three-point home underdogs. In the build up for the rematch, you will hear a lot about the subject of revenge. Note that since 1992, New England is an excellent 27-10 against the spread when playing with same season revenge, meaning they lost to the same team they are playing this week, earlier in the season. Luckily for us there is also an applicable betting system for making NFL picks where the revenge angle is in play. It says that when two good teams are playing (win percentage of.600 or better), it is the second half of the season and they played early in the year to take the team playing with revenge. This NFL betting system has gone 25-4 ATS or 86.2% over the past ten seasons.
Playing this game Over the betting total might also be a good idea. Currently, the betting odds for the over/under on this matchup is at 46.5 points. New England has gone Over the total in nine of its 11 overall games this season, including the Week 2 loss to the Jets, which exceeded the 39.5-point total. The Patriots are also 7-1 Over in games that they are favored on the betting line. Last week, they scored 45 points in a win and cover Thanksgiving Day against the Detroit Lions. The Jets also played on Thanksgiving, and until then, had gone Over the total in every game this season they played without rest. There are also some betting trends for New York that suggest playing this game Over the total. One is that the Jets are 6-0 Over if the they scored three points or less in the first half of their last game. The second is that the Jets are 7-0 Over after allowing 99 yards rushing or less in their last two games.
Therefore, our free NFL picks for Monday Night Football are to play the Patriots (-3) over the Jets and to play the game Over the 46.5 point total.